Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The Devil went down to Georgia

The Russian Military was once seen as a vaunted force, the lethal arm of the communist movement, and the counterweight to spread of the Western world and its ideas of freedom. The Red Army imposed the will of the Soviet party leadership at home and abroad, and ensured the Soviet state with its stability.

This military would meet its match in a place called Afghanistan, against a band of freedom fighters called the Mujaheddin. This stalemate would be a definitive point in the challenging of Soviet aggression as it sought to encroach upon the contemporary age, showing its fallibility in a world where asymmetric events would challenge the old order of power.

It would be this same military that would, in the August of 1991, begin a coup of that would signal the imminent demise of the Soviet regime, and the Soviet bloc of nations that they controlled. These actions would change the geopolitical landscape for the next 15 years, as Russia proper began to embrace capitalism.

15 years later, a shooting war erupts between the Russian Military and the Republic of Georgia, a former Soviet satellite, over a small province called Ossetia, a place seeking its own independence.

As the Georgian forces sought to stop the secession of Ossetia, Russian forces pounced on them and drove quickly into the Georgian interior, disabling the Georgian forces in 4 days worth of fighting, in spite of the heavy American advisory presence.

Whoa.

The stretched US military forces were not in a position to be a deterrent, nor were the NATO forces who could not reach that area with enough forces to be effective.

Has the West just ceded the flexing of Russian military muscle, with little noise?

Part of the irony is that President Bush is in Bejing at the Olympic Games as this is unfolding, and is chatting with Vladimir Putin of Russia in the spectator stands as if nothing is happening, while the Russian military is catching its second wind. Wow.

It is almost inconceivable that with the various sources of intelligence, the US Military and indeed, the national security apparatus had no clue as to what the Russians would do. I mean really, the devil goes down to Georgia and we didn't know he was coming to play his fiddle? Did we just watch our regional ally step into the proverbial hornets nest and didn't warn them?

This seems to be another case of the failure of the Bush administration to properly assess data, and provide real time advice with respect to defense matters.

The next president needs to deal with the gaps in intelligence better, or be prepared to deal with the devil when he shows up around the world and decides to play his fiddle. The Russian military isnt what it once was, but is still among the top 5 militaries in the world, by the experts opinion. We need not let Russian spread her influence, especially where US allies are impacted.